Report Compiled: 2020-05-13

Johns Hopkins Repo Commit: 25e7bc4 Max Data Date: 2020-05-12

NYT Repo Commit: e11a392 Max Data Date: 2020-05-12

This is an automatically generated report containing analyses of the COVID-19 epidemic in Iowa and elsewhere. All models under consideration here are stochastic SEIR compartmental models, fit using Approximate Bayesian Computation using the ABSEIR software for R. Source code available upon request. Questions should be directed to grant-brown@uiowa.edu

There are two general classes of model:

  1. Models which use a single location of mortality data to estimate the epidemic curves
  2. Models which are used to provide informative prior information about the epidemic in Iowa, based on analyses of other locations.

In both cases, we have to make assumptions about the shape of the underlying contact distributions. Namely, can we assume that contact in each location shifted within one week of governmental action, or is the shape of the curve more complex. With that in mind, we look at both types of models. In addition, for the State of Iowa, we consider whether or not it is most reasonable to assume that intervention efforts began on 3-17-2020 or 4-4-2020, which correspond to the emergency declaration and the official closing of schools.

** A huge array of models are presented in this document, and they are not reviewed by our team of experts before posting to this page. Some of these are guaranteed to be inadequate or misleading if interpreted by themselves. These results should be considered raw material for follow-up reporting, investigation, and decision-making.**

R0 Summaries: Single Location Analyses

Mortality Estimates: Single Location Analyses

Here, we present the compared results of analyses of the COVID-19 outbreak in a number of locations. We begin by comparing the estimated posterior distribution of mortality rates in each location.

Model Fit: Single Location Analyses

In the following tabbed sections, we present diverse output from the single location models, including projections over time of the following important quantities:

Illinois

Washington

Minnesota

Iowa (3-17)

Iowa (4-4)

Illinois (Spline Model)

Washington (Spline Model)

Minnesota (Spline Model)

Iowa (3-17, Spline Model)

Iowa (4-4, Spline Model)

Iowa Specific Projections

In the following sections, we apply the estimated intervention intensity from the previous analyses to the situation in Iowa, with the hope that by borrowing information from other locations we can improve the precision of our projections.

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Table of projected mortality by model/assumption

Mortality As Of: Training Location Intervention Date Model Type 10th Percentile 50th Percentile 90th Percentile
2020-06-23 Illinois 04-04-2020 Shift 622.3628 919.6068 1477.6339
2020-06-23 Illinois 04-04-2020 Spline 597.0253 837.8070 1374.7522
2020-06-23 Illinois 03-17-2020 Shift 1037.1464 1649.7613 2373.2829
2020-06-23 Illinois 03-17-2020 Spline 685.0253 1115.5106 2270.6489
2020-06-23 Iowa 04-04-2020 Shift 475.7672 1106.5870 3084.0937
2020-06-23 Iowa 04-04-2020 Spline 625.2890 1412.5682 3327.4744
2020-06-23 Iowa 03-17-2020 Shift 1054.2013 1899.5778 3523.8042
2020-06-23 Iowa 03-17-2020 Spline 704.4458 1518.8179 4507.2068
2020-06-23 Minnesota 04-04-2020 Shift 469.4764 710.5066 1265.4386
2020-06-23 Minnesota 04-04-2020 Spline 511.5844 823.6611 1772.5553
2020-06-23 Minnesota 03-17-2020 Shift 908.9862 1458.7174 2412.9804
2020-06-23 Minnesota 03-17-2020 Spline 639.5970 1384.8201 4422.7562
2020-06-23 Washington 04-04-2020 Shift 510.9284 773.7432 1376.9995
2020-06-23 Washington 04-04-2020 Spline 503.9803 749.5409 1558.7979
2020-06-23 Washington 03-17-2020 Shift 965.3442 1508.3064 2523.3082
2020-06-23 Washington 03-17-2020 Spline 806.9775 1740.7380 6415.6307
2020-05-27 Iowa 04-04-2020 Shift 308.0604 479.2090 660.8381
2020-05-27 Iowa 04-04-2020 Spline 385.6637 497.1221 636.3767
2020-05-27 Iowa 03-17-2020 Shift 431.1783 546.0934 692.4259
2020-05-27 Iowa 03-17-2020 Spline 405.9064 524.0102 723.9198